Well, Bush certainly fixed his not-radical-enough-for-the-base problem when he nominated Sam Alito for Supreme Court.

Maybe I'm just too much of an optimistic centrist, but I expected Bush to nominate someone who at least had something to offer people to the left of Genghis Khan.

But this nomination has a lot to offer political observers: we're going to see an interesting fight in the Senate. Pass the popcorn....

The battle lines are already being drawn. On the drive into work, NPR was interviewing commentators from both the hard right and the hard left. The hard-right guy was practically cackling with glee. "This is everything we've ever wanted," he said, and proceeded to rattle off a list of conservative code-words: he has the right views on "life" (abortion), "self-defense" (guns), and "state's rights" (civil rights).

The woman on the left didn't have to work hard to portray Alito as "extreme." She cited his ruling to uphold a law requiring a woman to notify her husband before having an abortion, and against the Family and Medical Leave Act. Most Americans are likely to view those rulings as fairly extreme--even if his judicial logic had nothing to do with the political issues.

My prediction (for what it's worth): Alito will be confirmed. He may pick up a very small number of Democratic votes, if he can make the case that he's a thoughtful scholar. But because he has a long record of judicial writing, he can't hide his views. Expect a long and drawn-out confirmation hearing where he'll be asked to discuss at great length many of his rulings. But because he lacks the intellectual fluffiness of Meirs, at least 51 senators will go along with the President's prerogative to nominate the justice of his choice.

And the net result will be lots and lots of soundbites which Democrats will use to portray the Republican party as dangerously extreme.

UPDATE: Orin Kerr at Volokh seems to think that Alito isn't nearly as conservative as he is being initially portrayed. If that's true, then I'm pleased. But I still get nervous when either side describes someone as exactly what they want.